Now that the Sharks are firmly in WTF-land, it’s time to prognosticate on their postseason chances.  The Sharks, even as bad as they’ve been playing, are still (barring the craziest thing I’ve ever seen) assured a spot in the postseason.  The question for today is- how do teams fare when they have a major meltdown like this late in the season?  I’m going to define a meltdown as a losing streak of 5 games or more (or 3 games to end the season), and ‘late in the season’ I’ll define as March and April.  Roughly the last 6 weeks.  I’m only doing post-lockout, because before the lockout there were ties, and having a bunch of ties in the middle of a winless streak doesn’t seem like the same thing.  Let’s go to the chart:

Nine teams in four years was a little more than I was expecting.  Six of the nine lost in the first round, which sounds like a lot, but keep in mind 50% of the teams that make it to the playoffs lose in the first round.  That’s really only one team over a random distribution.  Five of the nine were the top four seed, which is basically random.  No 1- or 2-seeds, which I suppose is to be expected- it’s hard to retain the conference lead when you drop 5 or more games in a row late in the year.  The fact that none of the teams went to the finals is also easily within the bounds of random chance.

When I started this tedious process, I was expecting the overwhelming majority (if not all) of the teams to get smoked early in the playoffs, and that’s just not the case.  The two teams that went to the conference finals were four and five seeds, which is likely where the Sharks will end up.  On the flip side of the coin, the top two teams in seeding, the 2009 Devils and 2008 Wild, both lost in the first round.  There also seems to be little correlation between the lateness of the streak and the playoff outcome.  If the Sharks win either Tuesday or Thursday, they will be tied for 6th in ‘lateness’.

So what’s the conclusion?  Losing five games in a row in the last 6 weeks of the season is not significantly correlated to playoff disappointment.  Mostly because Sharks teams of recent years aren’t on this list.  Har!

But seriously, if the Sharks manage to right the ship a little bit this week, there’s not much reason to think they are automatically doomed.  However, if they lose the next ten, I’d say that’ll be unprecedented.

How much do you make? Less than a million? Let's fight!

A few days ago, Ryane Clowe had a rather unfortunate quote in a Pollak blog post.  That quote?

I told him I wasn’t going to fight him, that I’d fight Barch.  I probably should have fought him (Morrow), but I have a hard time fighting guys who are the top players on other teams. I don’t know.”

Really the only way to take this is, “I get my ass kicked in fights against great players, so I’ll try and save myself some embarrassment and fight Kris Barch instead.”  Although Krys Barch, in both of his fights against Clowe and Jay Leach had a perfectly placed grab hand (right in front of the opponent’s right shoulder), effectively taking the right hand away from both guys.  And as I mentioned on the podcast this week, neither elected to go to the left, like Brad Staubitz does.  Say what you will about Staubitz, but he’s the best pound-for-pound fighter on the team, and it’s not even close.  That being said, it certainly doesn’t make up for his consistency in taking idiotic penalties.

Unfortunately as a result, Clowe looks like a wuss, passing up an opportunity to put the Stars’ best player in the box for 5 minutes.  Not a whole lot of hay was made about this quote, though I did see a couple of comments in the thread, and Doug was pretty incensed about it.  I didn’t really give it much thought, until last night when I was trying to ignore the Sharks getting worked by Calgary.

I’m not sure if someone talked to Clowe about his aversion to fighting top players, but he made a statement, maybe one of the only high points in the Sharks’ collective game all night.  It was an active and entertaining scrap, with Clowe fighting one of the biggest stars in the game-  probably the best-fighting big star in the game to boot.  My little theory is Clowe was trying to redeem himself for running away from Morrow.  These two things have to be a little related, right?

I can’t endorse the sentiment Clowe expressed above, but I admire his balls for taking on Iginla.  You can handle yourself against top players just fine, big guy.  Don’t back away anymore.

Another game. Another Loss. Another win for the red hot Coytoes. Is it possible the Sharks might actually plummet to the #4 slot?

There are certainly more questions than answers right now surrounding the Sharks as they free fall down the stretch. Why has Jed Ortmeyer, who was such an important energy player in the first half of the season, completely fallen out of favor with the coaching staff? While it’s hard to notice Ortmeyer’s contributions on a nightly basis since he is really here to do the “little things”, the equivalent of an offensive linemen in football speak, has he really bombed out so badly that he should ride pine? If the Sharks want to give Logan Couture a really solid look before the playoffs to see if he can play a scoring 3rd line role, that’s fine by me – but is Staubitz really going to play in May? Shouldn’t he sit and Ortmeyer, who can actually kill a penalty, be in the lineup? Hard to say what’s going on in their minds right now…but there are other coaching decisions that many of us are continuing to question.

What about the Sharks clear win/loss advantage with Jason Demers in the line-up?  As many of you have pointed out in the comment thread, the Sharks are 30-9-7 with Demers manning the blueline and 13-8-3 without him. That’s a .652 win percentage in Demers’ favor and .541 without him on the ice. While Mike pointed out the Sharks are .500-ish without Vlasic, I think this stat absolutely should be noticed. While he’s not perfect and certainly has growing pains, the Sharks lack of commitment to Demers this season has been mildly troubling. So, who’d you rather in the playoffs? Kent Huskins, Stanley Cup winner and playoff vet, or rookie Jason Demers, much stronger talent and potential for a big play…

Rob Blake’s ice time. What gives? At a point where the Sharks should be tempering their best players ice time to get them ready for a deep playoff run – are they burning out Captain Blake with 20+ minutes night after night after night. He has been half the player he was last year – literally – with a difference of 45 points, +15 and 110 PIM’s to this year’s version of 21 points, +6 and 50 PIM’s. I’m still really concerned about his role going in the Cup playoffs – not to mention Hamburgers lack of a defined role on this team. He played 13 even strength minutes last night compared to Blake’s 17 even strength minutes and Huskins 20+ even strength minutes. Why did we get this guy again if he’s not going to play? Ewwwwww…

Bring back Demers. Play Couture extended minutes. Sit Leach and Staubitz. Give Wallin some of Blake’s even strength time. And stop doing a Ron Wilson impression and leave the lines alone. Do all these things and we’re back on track…cause I know everything.

Mike and Doug purposely try to avoid jumping on the Sharks with both feet after the recent rash of disappointing games, but nibble around the edges instead.  The Dudes talk about when they need to pick it up, how the post season might go now that Phoenix is within striking distance, and break down the recent Hockey News prospect ranking list.

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Maybe it’s just because I’m fighting the flu, but I’m a little down on everything today, and the Sharks are no exception.  After watching the Sharks cough up the game to the #12 seed in the east on Saturday, the Sharks lose big to the western #13 seed tonight.  Couldn’t help thinking that the Sharks would lose a series to the Ducks if it started tomorrow, but that could just be a product of my general malaise.

I wish I could point to a specific player (although I do have a stink eye peering in Devin Setoguchi’s direction), but it just seems a general lack of urgency, and the inevitable high turnovers.  Couple that with some bad goaltending, and the Sharks lose games.  At least the Sharks aren’t alone in losing games they shouldn’t – Chicago managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory today, and I’m sure Doug will be thrilled to chime in to reitierate his theory (which is looking pretty good right now) of Chicago being in deep trouble with Huet in net.

So how worried are you?  Sweating like me?  Wait, that could be the fever.  Dammit.

I see the image of a crown and a hungry prairie dog. Is it the future of the Pacific Division or Boy George's weekend plans?

The Hockey News Future Watch 2010 issue arrived in the mail this week and to no surprise, Logan Couture’s name appears on their list of the Top 100 Prospects already drafted by NHL Teams. Couture comes in at #36. As an organization, the Sharks didn’t fare as well as their best prospect, ranking 27th out of 30 NHL clubs with a C grade. This is actually a drop off from last years low rank of 25th.

Honestly, I’m surprised at the low overall grade given the Worcester Sharks overall success this season and the immediate development of some of their younger players in the AHL. Worcester has three young players in the Top 40 in scoring, with Zalewski pulling 57 points in 61 games, followed by Couture’s 54 points in 41 games and Ferriero’s 47 points in 44 games. The only other team with such dynamic AHL scoring is the Washington Capitals trio of Aucion, Giroux and Gordon. If Couture and Ferriero had been in Worcester the whole season and avoided injury, Couture would be projected at 86 points, which would put him 1st in the AHL in scoring. Ferreiro would be at 69 points, 4th in the AHL in scoring. Somehow, Ferreiro doesn’t even make David Pollak’s list of Top 10 Sharks prospects, which I would be curious to get an explanation of.

Pollak lists the Sharks top prospects in this order: Couture, Petrecki, Joslin (really?), Zalewski, Zackrisson, Sexsmith, Wrenn, Doherty, Demers and Groulx. No Ferreiro….and no Alex Stalock.

Stalock has been the rock the Worcester Sharks success has been centered around this season. He is 1st in the AHL in wins and total minutes played and 3rd in total saves, while Sexsmith has struggled all season with a 4-6-1, .860 save percentage and a 3.94 GAA and even earned a trip to the ECHL. I’m not giving up on Sexsmith at all, he had an outstanding junior hockey career with the Vancouver Giants – but does he really deserve to be ranked ahead of Stalock when he’s been totally overwhelmed his first year in the pros, while Stalock has played like a veteran leading a team to a possible Calder Cup?

I was glad to see William Wrenn on this list, he’s definitely a player of interest for the future – the way far away future since he’s in his 1st year at Denver University. I was pleasantly surprised to see Dudes on Hockey posterchild Nick Petrecki holding down the 2nd spot even though reports are he has struggled big time his first season at Worcester.

As for the rest of the Pacific Division, LA’s future continues to look bright – they are the overall #1 Future Watch leader with four players in the Top 100 including Brayden Schenn (#10), Jonathan Bernier (#15), Colten Teubert (#48), and Thomas Hickey (#72). Phoenix is ranked #6 with four players in the 100: Oliver Ekman Larsson (#3), Kyle Turris (#12), Mikkel Boedker (#14) and Max Goncharov (#44). That’s a pretty impressive take and they proved to be much deeper than I remembered or realized. Anaheim ranks #20 with two top 100 guys: Luca Sbisa (#9) and Kyle Palmieri (#70). Dallas is just slightly ahead of the Sharks at 24th and I think their ranking should be lower considering they traded Ivan Vishnevskiy (#51) to Atlanta in the Kari Lehtonen deal. Their prize prospect is Kyle Glennie (#27), a WHL forward who was cut from Canada’s Junior Team but has 88 points in junior hockey this year.

The Sharks coming in lower on this list is a product of their regular season success. LA has four 1st round draft pick prospects on the horizon, Phoenix has three 1st rounders up and coming. The Sharks haven’t had a 1st round pick in two years, dealing them to get Brian Campbell and Dan Boyle. The players drafted with the Sharks picks, Tyler Ennis and Kyle Palmieri, are both in the Top 100 prospects list at #29 and #70 respectively. Would Doug Wilson undo the Brian Campbell trade and his passion to win the Cup in 2008 if he knew he could have Buffalo’s top prospect in Ennis along side Couture in the minors? Would you rather have college forward Palmieri and Matt Carle or Dan Boyle?

Looking at this list makes me recognize more than ever that the Sharks window of dominance in the Pacific Division is closing and the era of the Los Angeles Kings could be on the horizon. The Sharks are young enough on the NHL level to still be an elite team in the NHL, but will they be a lock to win the Pacific Division in the future? With the Kings and Coyote rising and the Stars and Ducks fading, my crystal ball thinks this might be our last run at a #1 seed for awhile – making a deep playoff run this season more important than ever.

Hey Jerky!  Don’t leave the game early!

I love this series of commercials.  And this one, linked by Puck Daddy today, is particularly poignant for Sharks fans.  Sure, it was a pretty wretched game until about 3 minutes into the third.  But don’t try to beat the traffic.  You would have missed an unbelievable flurry of goals, the likes of which I’ve never seen before.  Like this one:

This prompted perhaps the latest goalie change I’ve ever witnessed, with  only 5:20 left in the game.  It was so late (and perhaps unnoticed, because Ellis is #35, Rinne #39), that it wasn’t even announced to the crowd.  My astute section neighbor noticed it.  Didn’t help much, because Rinne faced two shots, one of them a goal by Marleau.  Thanks for stopping by Rinne.

With both Pavs and Heatley on the ice bidding for the hat trick with the goalie pulled late in the game, who scored the empty netter?  Jay Leach, from 130 feet, his first NHL goal.  A perfect ending to one of the weirdest, craziest Sharks games ever.

Oh yeah.  Boys, try and show up a little earlier next time.

The Sharks are rolling on, winning games in a comeback fashion.  But this week is about you, the listeners.  The contest winner is announced, and the Dudes take several emails, talking about the Sharks possible playoff matchups, where they might finish in the standings, and weigh in on the latest headshot controversy.

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I’m not sure what I expected last night when I went to the Canadiens game.  I always try to see the Original Six teams when I can, there’s just so much history.  I’m reminded of that one episode of the Simpsons where they sent Bart to military school, and the school’s motto is “A Tradition of Heritage”.  Anyway, I just re-read The Game by Ken Dryden, and I agree with the blurb on the cover- it’s the best hockey book ever written.  You get some great writing about day-to-day stuff of the Canadiens in the 70s, with some really excellent portraints of some of the players on that team. These are guys as hockey fans we know, but not because we remember them as players.  Jacques Lemaire, Bob Gainey, Guy Lafleur, Mario Tremblay, Larry Robinson.  The team of Béliveau (one of my all time favorites), Richard, Geoffiron, et al, is still a little something special, despite the fact that they haven’t won a Cup since ’93 and haven’t really been in contention for a while (#1 seed notwithstanding).

The big knock against the Habs this year is how small they are.  They went out and got Mike Cammaleri, Brian Gionta, and Scott Gomez, giants none.  The only giant they have is Hal Gill, a 6’7 behemoth, but he gets knocked a lot for being too slow.  Think Alexei Semenov with bad ankles.  Damn, I told myself I was done with Semenov cracks.   Guess I need to take a new sobriety date.

There was a ton of extracurricular activity last night, lots of face-washing, pushing and shoving, and general nasty jabbering.  No fights broke out- both teams have jettisoned their resident enforcers.  We saw Tomas Plekanec get into a couple of altercations after some questionable play against Thornton and Marleau, then get decked by Heatley in the 3rd.  We saw Nichol injured after getting run from behind into the boards without a call.  We saw Josh Gorges (who almost led Montreal in ice time (!))  and Thornton trading a little bit of something.  And we saw a beleageured goalie, Cary Price, stand on his friggin’ head for much of the game.  The Sharks scored their second goal on their 35th shot.  No NHL team averages 35 shots per game.

But now we know why he is beleageured.  It wasn’t enough, and the Sharks turned a 2-1 third period deficit into a 3-2 victory on goals by Heatley and Malhotra.  If you were looking at the box score very quickly, you might say that Price managed to cough up another one, but really he kept them in it for much of the game.  Well, his friend The Post helped as well.  Boyle hit the bar on a penalty shot after Hal Gill somehow accidentally-on-pupose threw Price’s errant goalie stick into his path.  Then Heatley hit the post again less than a minute later on one of his signature one-timers.  Those shots go in, or one of the other 30-odd shots go in, and the Sharks win going away.

I was a little surprised at the Habs’ pluck, but I suppose they are trying to make the playoffs.  It turned into another test for the Sharks, and unlike the game against the Devils, it was a test they passed.

Update:  Here’s the Lapierre hit on Nichol.  I’m even more jazzed up about it after hearing Ray Ferraro rant.

So many things to talk about this week!  The Dudes start it off with the great Olympic goal medal game between the U.S. and Canada, and how the loyalties were split just a little bit.  After talking about the loss to the Devils, which the Sharks managed to climb back into, Mike and Doug dive headlong into the trade deadline, because who likes talking trades more than the Dudes?  Lots of Pacific Division action, and there are some winners and losers on trade deadline day

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