The Dudes do another weekend podcast, this time breaking down the latest Sharks games, who the Sharks might face in the 1st round, who has the biggest chance of knocking out one of the current top 8, and listener emails.

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I know there’s no crying in baseball, but how about hockey? Mike and I have both been swamped with “real life” stuff. WAAAHH. How dare that interfere with our alter egos/hockey podcasting lifestyle!!!

LA Kings overpriced forward Ryan Smyth crying because there was no podcast this week.

Anywho, we apologize for the delay in the podcast and we will have a new episode live, in living color, on Sunday afternoon. We should be back on track to our regular scheduled programming with mid-week episodes starting next week.

Last night was a solid point on the road for the Sharks and I was pretty pleased with how they gutted it out. Those are games that in past this collection of core players have dropped, a tough road match up on the 2nd game of a back to back. Sharks need to keep winning, the Pacific Division is no lock by any means. It comes down to who will win a best of three series down the stretch between the Phoenix Coyotes and the Sharks. Three games, winner takes Pacific Division. I think it’s that simple. Two of these tilts are in Phoenix, so they have the advantage. Phoenix also has Colorado on their schedule and the Sharks have no cupcakes in their final seven (Phoenix x 3, Anaheim x 2, Dallas, LA). Saturday night is pretty important folks. Let’s go get two points.

WESTERN HOCKEY LEAGUE/YOUNG DUDES PREVIEW

The WHL playoffs start tonight with five young dudes involved in the postseason run for the Ed Cheynoweth Cup. Here we go.

EAST
#1 Saskatoon Blades vs. #8 Prince Albert Cougars –  Sharks prospect riser, Marek Viedensky, is a top player for Saskatoon with 88 points and an amazing +60 rating.

#4 Kootenay vs. #5 Moose Jaw Warriors – Thomas Heemskerk is the goalie for the Warriors and has had a mediocre season statwise. Can he pick it up and take Moose Jaw on a run?

WEST

#1 Portland WinterHawks vs. #8 Everett Silvertips – The decision by 2009 Sharks 2nd round pick, William Wrenn, to jump from University of Denver to the WHL appears to be stroke of genius in terms of his career development. He went from a overlooked bottom pairing d-man not getting a regular shift to a guy playing solid minutes and posting 13 points and a +25 rating in 29 games for the top seed.

#2 Kelowna Rockets vs. #7 Prince George – Local Bay Area kid, and new San Jose Sharks free agent prospect, Sena Acolaste is one of the WHL’s top blueliners. He’ll shoot for the upset here against Kelowna.

#3 Spokane vs. Chilliwack Bruins – Sharks prospect camp signee, Curt Gogol, plays for Chilliwack and is 3rd in the WHL in penalty minutes with 201 PIMs. Not sure how much of an impact he’ll have on a playoff run, but we’ll keep an eye on him.

YOUNG DUDE OF THE DAY

Phil Varone gets the nod with a goal and an assist in Erie’s 2-1 win in the opening round of the OHL playoffs. Phil-er up. Here’s his playoff blog for everything Otter and Varone related to make your Friday even brighter.

The wife was out and I had the TV all to myself.

The result was predictable – some NHL 11 on the PS3, Pittsburgh vs. Detroit on Versus, an episode of Boardwalk Empire on DVR and then right back to the PS3 to stream Calgary vs. LA Kings on NHL Gamecenter. There were some important points at stake tonight and, even with Detroit’s huge comeback, they left a valuable punto flapping in the breeze. I think it’s pretty vital the Sharks do everything they can do snag that #2 seed so, if we do get Detroit in the Conf. Semis again….and you know we will….the Sharks will have home ice. It worked last time, let’s not make New Coke here.

Calgary lost in the shootout in LA last night and lost in OT vs. Anaheim on Sunday, so with seven games left to go, the Flames are scrambling to keep up in the Western Conference playoff race. We’re going to see a desperate team on Wednesday night. Calgary has lost five out of six and despite an easy end to their season schedule wise (including the terrible trio of Edmonton twice, Colorado and St. Louis) they are likely going to be missing the party if they don’t win tomorrow. Look for Iginla and the Flames to throw everything they have left in the tank at the boys tomorrow – but I just don’t think it will be enough. Sharks should play the bully and throw out Calgary’s season like expired Lactaid. Peace out Kipper. I hope you pull yourself from the game on Wednesday like you did in the Olympics.

The first round of the Ontario Hockey League playoffs begins on Thursday, March 24th. Below are the match-ups of interest featuring the Sharks “Young Dudes”.

EAST
#1 Mississauga vs. #8 Belleville Bulls – Sharks goalie prospect, J.P. Anderson, is the starting goalie for Mississauga and also leads the OHL in several important goalie categories. You may remember him from his cameo in San Jose from his cameo as “Who The Hell is That Goalie #2” in January when he was called up on an emergency basis by the Sharks and fetched Neemo’s Del Taco. He signed a three year deal out of rookie camp.

J.P. Anderson as Man in Mask

#2 Ottawa 67s vs. #7 Sudbury Wolves – Sharks forward prospect, Michael Sgarbossa, is the Wolves leading scorer with 82 points and 77 PIMs. The undersized speedster was signed out of rookie camp in September by the Sharks to a three year deal.

#3 Niagara Ice Dogs vs. #6 Brampton Battalion  – 2010 5th round draft pick Freddie Hamilton is 2nd on the Ice Dogs in scoring with 83 points. He appears to be a steal for a 5th round pick and has a good reputation, scoring touch and work ethic. The Dudes are going to keep an eye on this 19 year old.

#4 Oshawa Generals vs. #5 Kingston Frontenacs – One of the crown jewels of the Sharks system, defensemen Taylor Doherty (recently ranked #3 by Hockey’sFuture.com for Sharks prospects) is the team captain of Kingston and his 6’8 beastly frame will be a major factor in the playoffs. Doherty is signed to a three year EL deal and could appear in Worcester when his season ends in Kingston….actually, I would bet on it.

The Young Great White - Taylor Doherty

WEST:

#3 Kitchener Rangers vs. #6 Plymouth Whalers – Recently signed as an undrafted free agent for the 2011-12 season, James Livingston, plays forward for the Whalers and is 4th on the team in scoring with 50 points. He is a physical player with net presence and defensive instincts.

#4 Windsor Spitfire vs. #5 Erie Otters – Sharks 5th round pick in 2009, Phil Varone, is the Otters 2nd leading scorer with 82 points. He is mini-spark plug at 5’9 enjoying a healthy season after being injured for half of 2009-10 and is currently unsigned by San Jose.

We will keep you posted on any highlights including our Young Dudes and how their playoff journeys pan out.

YIUUUUUUUUU!!!! GO SHARKS!

Since there’s no real update on Logan Couture’s injury, except for his post on Twitter saying “Thankfully, it isn’t as bad as it looked or first felt. Hope to be back soon!”, I turned my Sunday morning hockey fix towards the NCAA tournament…and not the one most average Dudes care about.

This morning, the NCAA announced its field of 16 teams for the NCAA Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Championship Bracket. The opening round games can be watched on ESPN3 and/or ESPNU.

We profiled the Sharks prospects and their junior and NCAA playoff prospects in our latest episode and I guessed that Charlie Coyle and Boston University might snag an at large bid, but they were left out in the cold and one of those coveted spots went to another Sharks prospect, defensemen Lee Moffie, and the University of Michigan. Moffie is tied for the team lead among d-men with seven goals in only 28 games and he’s a +10. He figures to play a key role in Michigan’s NCAA hopes as a sophomore, so we’ll be keeping an eye on the 2010 7th round pick next weekend.

Lee Moffie/Michigan Wolverines

Isaac MacLeod (5th round in 2010) is a freshmen member of the overall #3 seed, Boston College Eagles. The 6’5 blueliner has appeared in 24 games this year, but has been a scratch in four of the last five games, so I don’t think we should expect to see him on the ice in the NCAA tournament unless someone goes down with an injury.

Isaac MacLeod with the Check Monster

Enjoy the hockey version of March Madness. We will keep you updated on the fate of our Young Dudes in the NCAA, OHL, WHL and QMJHL playoffs.

The Dudes make a Saturday podcast, recapping the latest games, previewing the upcoming ones, and giving a rundown of the various Sharks prospects in the playoffs in other leagues.

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The Sharks have technically lost four out of five with a crucial battle against division rival Dallas on tap tonight. The Dudes will return to the pre-recorded podcast airwaves on Saturday with a special double episode as we head for the playoff push to talk all things Sharks, playoff positioning, possible opponents and a preview of Sharks prospects and their OHL, WHL, QMJHL and NCAA hockey playoff battles.

Look for us then. Go Sharks!

Schedules intrude, but the Dudes still manage to record the podcast.  They cover the latest games, the surprising lack of D trouble even with Boyle out, and of course, the Chara hit.

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Between periods, the Sharks put up various groups that are attending the game that night, and we managed to grab a shot of this one.

Wasn't aware "alter boy" was a title

Uh, discuss.

Sharks win all three games this week in extra time, and the trade deadline came and went.  The Dudes break down the games and the trades, and digest the new Antti Niemi contract extension.

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I like reading sports books, and I like reading economics-type books.  Which is why I was interested to read Sportscasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won.  Worst case, they’d have some interesting theories about sports with scarce or anecdotal data to back it up (the way some people criticize Malcom Gladwell’s work) and best case it would really shed light on some interesting sports conundrums.  So which is it?

Actually, the latter.  And in order to achieve it, the authors crunched a ton (is it tonne in Canada?) of data.  It’s not nearly as breezy as a Gladwell read, but it’s meatier.  More tables, more numbers, more statistics, more explanations and hedges about what can properly be controlled for, and what can’t.  Those who have read this site for a while and listened to our podcasts know I love that kind of thing.   A couple of long chapters of the book are setting up the dominos to answer the question- why do home teams have such a big advantage?

There’s no doubt there IS an advantage, and it’s substantial in pretty much every sport.  Soccer is the most lopsided, with well over 60% of games being won by the home team (they calculated the numbers for MLS, EPL, Serie A, La Liga, and others).  Basketball is next, with the NBA home teams winning 62.7% (they even calculate WNBA and college).  The NHL is next, with 59% percent of home teams winning, and football (57.8%) and baseball (54.1%) bringing up the rear.

So, some things that are interesting about this discussion, the first being obvious, the others not (but backed up by the data).

1. Home teams win the majority of games, sometimes a significant majority.
2. This winning percentage is constant across time.  The winning percentage of home teams was about the same 50 years ago as it was 10 years ago, or now.
3. The winning percentage is directly related to the sport itself.  Japanese baseball home teams have about the same winning percentage as MLB home teams.  Arena football the same as the NFL.

I’ve never thought about this too much before, but even #1 is really remarkable.  Why do home teams win so much, and so consistently?  There has been no NHL season where away teams won more games than home teams. As watchers of plenty of NHL games, I’m sure we all think of several reasons why this is.  One is the home crowds- the home players play better when you’re cheering them rather than booing them.  Another is travel- away teams have to deal with hotels, unfamiliar surroundings, and jetlag.

Incredibly, the authors make very good cases that both of these are myths.  It’s really hard to control for home crowds, because there are so many other interactions going on.  But here’s one feat in hockey that’s essentially isolated from all those player and referee interactions- the shootout.  It’s basically an interaction between two players and the crowd.  So if the crowd were a factor in home player’s effort and performance, you expect the shootout to have a home-rink advantage the way the rest of the game does, right?  Well, it doesn’t.  Since the shootout started, away teams won the shootout 50.6% of the time.  The home-rink advantage just doesn’t exist in the shootout.

And, amazing, they manage to control for travel as well.  How could you do that? Well, what about teams that are really close together, like the Devils, Rangers, and Islanders?  You’d expect less home advantage when those teams play each other, because they don’t have to really go anywhere- just drive a bit further.  But if you look at those games, the home advantage is exactly the same as all the other games.  They found there is a small effect with back-to-back games, which in most sports occur more often on the road.  But that’s not nearly enough to explain it all.

So what the hell is it?  I’m going to put a break here in the post, because some people might actually want to read the book and not get the spoiler.  I’ve condensed many pages into this post, and believe me, it’s worthwhile to read all the other support the authors have come up with.  Or, more likely, you just want to bail out because there’s too many words reading sux zzzzz…..

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