What, more bullet points?  Amazing!

• People don’t use the term ‘gird your loins’ enough.
• Nobody gets to panic one little bit unless and until the Sharks lose game 3.
• Even then, I seem to remember something about being down 2-1 against Colorado last year…
• Thornton has to make an impact tonight.  Maybe he can fight Trevor Lewis on the opening drop.
• Another big idea- keep an eye on #8.  Just sayin’.
• Doug will be participating in the chat tonight during the game, if you want to stop by.
• Go Sharks.

Here are some random points on game 1, thoughtfully posted in bullet form.  So convenient, because then I don’t have to weave them into a coherent storyline.

• The Kings controlled well over half of the game, I thought the Sharks were a bit lucky to make it to overtime.
• I don’t believe in clutch players as a rule, but Joe Pavelski is making a damn compelling case otherwise.
• The Stoll hit on White was unfortunate and borderline dirty.  My gut feeling is this gets 2 games in the regular season, but none in the playoffs.  Cue Mike being wrong in 3…2…1…
• Thank God for Justin Braun.
• It’s a bit of a strange feeling, but I’m hoping Huskins gets healthy, because with Braun in, our #7 is Mike Moore.
• Demers should have gotten 2 for charging on that hit.  For a second there I thought he was auditioning for Cirque de Soleil.
• Anybody else have visions of Craig Anderson when Quick came up huge in the 3rd?
• Doug’s wife sang the national anthem, and was great.  I wanted to tweet that before the game, but cell phone reception at the Tank sucks, and I didn’t get permission in time.
• I highly recommend the Chicago-style hot dogs sold near section 119.
• I have a semifinal game of my own tomorrow night, but I have tickets to game 2.  I’d appreciate advice on this moral quandary.  I told myself I’d play if the Sharks won game 1, but that game was so good I don’t want to miss a minute of this series if I can help it.
• Is it just me or did Doughty get beat on the outside a few times?
• My beard looks like crap.
• I love the playoffs.

The best part of the hockey year has begun, and the Dudes are on it.  They recap the season, including their pre-season picks, and pick the first round of the playoffs.  Of course the main event is the Sharks – Kings series, with Mike and Doug making their choices.

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At this point, entering into the last day of the season, the Sharks have clinched the #2, but could still play Chicago, L.A., Nashville, or Phoenix.  The Ducks, having a lot of regulation and overtime wins, are guaranteed the #4. Doug’s wish didn’t come true tonight- the Preds lost.

The worst thing that could happen is Chicago loses in OT or the shootout. Because they have more ROW (regulation and overtime wins) than the Kings, they win that tiebreaker and move into the #7.  So we want a beatdown tomorrow, one way or the other.

It’s possible that seeds 4-8 could all end up with 99 points.  If that happens, it’s really crazy.  Chicago would move up to the #5 because they’d have 39 ROW.  Nashville and Phoenix would have to go to the fourth tiebreaker, because they’d have the same number of ROW, and split the season series.  The Preds have a better overall goal differential, so they are the #6.  We’d play Phoenix (I wonder if playing one team 9 times in a row would be an NHL record), and the Kings would fall to the #8.

It could get even crazier than that.  If the Hawks won in the shootout then there’d be a three-way tie for ROW.  The tiebreaker is points per game in those matchups.  Chicago has acquired 13 points in 10 games versus those two opponents, Phoenix 9 points in 8 games, and Nashville 10 points in 10 games.  So Chicago would still get the #5, but Phoenix would move up to the #6 and we’d get the Preds.

Because Dallas went 3-1 against the Hawks this year, they are still alive- they have to win in regulation or overtime tomorrow and the Hawks have to lose in regulation for the Stars to snag the #8.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend – go Wings!  And go Minnesota – we want Vancouver facing Chicago again.

The playoff picture is almost complete. It all hinges on a few more games. Does the role go to the defending Stanley Cup champs, das Chicago Blackhawks, or the team that caught fire with the easiest stretch run schedule, the Dallas Stars?

All Chicago has to do is get a point at home against the Red Wings. They do that, it’s red rover, red rover, call Patrick Kane over for either Vancouver, San Jose or Detroit – a nightmare first round match up for any of the big three. Bottom line, you have to go through some tough teams to win the Stanley Cup, but it would be nice for the Sharks to get a little bit of luck. So, if you want to be obsessive like this Dude, follow my simple game plan to Sharks playoff bliss this weekend.

SATURDAY
Nashville @ St. Louis – Go Preds!

Phoenix @ San Jose – the Sharks take two points here and lock up the #2 seed and put the Coyotes back in their place.

Anaheim @ Los Angeles – you swallow your pride and root for another Ducks win, putting them essentially out of reach for the Sharks in the first round and you avoid the hottest team streaking into April. You then set up the chance to play LA in round one.

SUNDAY
Detroit @ Chicago at 9:30 on NBC – Now the Sharks have the #2 in hand, you root for the Wings and throw up a little in the process. Blank the Hawks, allow them no points and set up the fluke that they might not make the dance at all.

Dallas @ Minnesota at 3pm on NHL Network – Dallas need to win in regulation to have a chance. It must be regulation to tie the Blackhawks in the first tie breaker, which is regulation wins. Both teams would have 38. Then you go to head to head record and the Dallas Stars won the season series 2-1-1. Dallas is in. Good night Chicago.

NHL Playoff Schedule Revealed at 7pm pacific on NHL Network – Thanks to one of my favorite blogs, Puck the Media, for making this bit of news public. It’s always such a pain in the *** to wait for the playoff schedule, so hopefully the NHL is taking a page out of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament here and reveals not just the matchups, but the actual schedule on Sunday night at a reasonable time so maniacs like myself don’t have to stay up all night refreshing Safari and drinking Coke Zeros.

In this scenario, here’s how the playoffs would end ( I think, remember…theatre major doing math)

1) Vancouver vs. 8) Dallas with 97 points.
2) San Jose with 105 points vs. 7) LA with 98 points.
3) Detroit with 102 points vs. 6) Phoenix with 99 points.
4) Nashville with 101 points vs. 5) Anaheim with 99 points

You have home ice vs. Detroit, which is important, and Phoenix took them to the brink last year and the Wings went 2-1-1 vs. Phoenix this year with both the wins going to overtime. Phoenix could torment them again and wear them down. Good scenario for San Jose.

The Ducks get the #5 over Phoenix because they have several more regulation wins.

The Sharks would also draw the weakest playoff opponent and the team that goes into the postseason spinning like you did on your 21st birthday. They don’t have their two best scorers. They will have lost (in this scenario) four of their last six. Not too good. Ripe for a quick killing.

Remember, this is a perfect world scenario. We all know it won’t work out this way the Sharks will likely draw Anaheim or Chicago because, well, that’s the way it seems to work for our hockey karma.

Have a good hockey weekend. Go Sharks!

The Sharks continue their winning ways against Anaheim and the Kings at home, but lose huge at the Pond.   Mike and Doug try to find the correct perspective for this game, try and guess who their first round opponent might be, and talk about what it means to be a Stemmer.

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The Sharks again embarrassed an opponent last night, just crushing the Kings 6-1. As you can see in our twitter feed to the right (woo hoo! new features!) the Sharks should have been a giant favorite, mostly because the Kings were missing their top two scorers. The Sharks had five players on the ice with more points than their top scorer last night, Dustin Brown.

And yet, there’s room for improvement. Check out this great post by Justin Bourne writing on the Puck Daddy blog.  For whatever reason, he uses film clips almost exclusively from last night’s game to show what not to do, and our own Joe Thornton was the object of one lesson.  I’m sure the coaches saw these, and I’d like to think corrections will be made.  Even in my beer league leaving guys all alone in the slot is reason for derision.

We’ll be recording and posting the podcast tomorrow night after the Ducks game.

Welcome to the Land of the Big Boys

As us Dudes thought, the Sharks top junior prospect, Taylor Doherty, has been reassigned to Worcester for the remainder of the AHL season for their playoff push. His OHL junior team, Kingston, lost their first round match up and he was already signed to an entry level deal. We’ve seen this move before by the Sharks with Logan Couture in the past and it’s a good opportunity to see him play with grown men. I would imagine he’ll play immediately and it’s not impossible that the kid will be brought up to San Jose for the Stanley Cup playoffs if Worcester is eliminated, not to play but to give him a taste of the NHL good life.

Doherty is the most intriguing Sharks prospect for me. He has incredible size and skill for a towering kid of 6’8. Can he develop into Tyler Myers, or will he be an American version of our favorite whipping-boy, Mr. Semenov? This will be a small glimpse into how he handles himself on the professional level.

The Dudes only have one game to talk about- the 6-0 pasting of the Stars – but they do it with relish.  Now that the season is finally winding down, it’s time to talk about possible first round matchups in the east and west, who will likely be playing when everyone gets healthy again, and of course, listener emails.

Note:  I’m experimenting with lower encodings, this week’s show was encoded at 64kB because of a request to make the file smaller.  I want to see if this measurably affects audio quality.

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It’s been a while since I wrote a stats-related post, and I figured I’d write one to piggyback on an interesting post on the Behind the Net blog (not to be confused with Behind the Net, the numbers site).  A while back I did a purge on the RSS feeds I read, and for some stupid reason, this blog was amongst the casualties.  I really must have been in a slash-and-burn mood that day, because it’s really one of the best hockey blogs out there if you are statistically inclined. What I want to do today is highlight some of the stats talked about in the linked post, and who on the Sharks are the best at those categories.

First of all, some real quick and dirty explanations of some of the stats referenced there.  I would recommend reading more about them, but not everyone can spend hours reading about advanced hockey metrics.  And as Doug would say, why would you want to?

• GVT – Goals Versus Threshold.  A complicated stat that tries to create one number for the value of a player, measured in goals in a season versus the value of a replacement-level player.  Similar to VORP in baseball.
• Rating – a BTN stat that is the difference between your team’s +/- per 60 minutes when you are on the ice versus when you are off the ice.  Unlike the regular +/- stat, it helps level the playing field for those on bad teams.
• QualComp – quality of competition.   The weighted average of the Rating of the players you face on the ice.
• Corsi – a +/- stat that counts shots instead of goals.  Actually, it counts all pucks directed towards the net, including missed and blocked shots.  Unfortunately, it’s similar to the +/- stat in that players on good teams generally have better ones.  Of the 28 players that have played a game for the Sharks this season, only 10 have negative Corsi, and most (Moore, Mashinter, Desjardins, McLaren, Wingells) aren’t regulars.
• Corsi Rel – The difference in your Corsi when you’re on the ice versus off.
• Corsi Rel QoC – Quality of Competition calculated not by +/- per 60, but Corsi Rel.
• Zone Starts – the percentage of shift-starting faceoffs being in the offensive zone.

If you’re still reading, pat yourself on the back, because that’s a load of math.  Let’s highlight the different Sharks players leading the categories in the stats that the LOES highlighted, in the order that I think is most important. The following is all 5v5 stats, and I’m not including anyone that’s played fewer than 10 games.

Corsi Rel – Kyle Wellwood – 14.6

It’s surprising, and doubtless related to a red-hot Joe Pavelski and clicking third line since he arrived.  Still, Wellwood leads the team in a stat I believe is miles better than +/-.  One downside to Corsi Rel is that time-on-ice isn’t factored in, and it should be noted Wellwood has averaged only 13.07 minutes of even-strength ice time per game, good enough for 15th on the Sharks.  For this reason, it’s worth mentioning the second place player, Ryane Clowe (14.1), who’s averaging more than two minutes more 5v5 ice time, and who I might argue is the team’s MVP.  Top Corsi Rel among defensemen? Jason Demers (8.6).

QualComp – Patrick Marleau – 0.101

Marleau is way out in front on this stat, with the second place Joe Thornton at 0.087.  Despite the fact that Marleau tends to play the wing more now, traditionally not as defensively important as center, he’s  the go-to guy when the other team’s top line is on the ice.  Top defenseman – Dan Boyle (0.062).

Corsi Rel QoC – Patrick Marleau – 0.885

I’m not sure why the LOES like Corsi so much yet mention QualComp instead CorsiRel QoC.  If Corsi is better than +/-, then Corsi Rel QoC is better than QualComp.  Maybe that’s what they meant.  Anyway, unsurprisingly, Mareau leads again, but there’s a bit of shifting under him.  Jumbo drops to 5th on the team, and Joe Pavelski (0.747) moves up to 2nd.  Boyle moves up to 3rd.

Zone Starts – Scott Nichol – 39.4

This means when Nichol took a faceoff to start a shift, 60% of the time it was in the defensive zone.  That’s a lot of trust from the coaching staff, and certainly related to the fact that Nichol is the best faceoff guy on the team. Like the last stat, it’s a way of measuring how sheltered a guy is.  It’s been calculated that you give up about 0.25 shots every time you take a faceoff in the defensive zone, so this is why Nichol’s Corsi isn’t so good.  With that in mind, it’s unsurprising that Marc-Edouard Vlasic (46.8) has the lowest zone start percentage among defensemen.

Time on Ice – Dan Boyle – 19.13

No doubt Boyle is the workhorse, and even strength is no exception.  He also plays the most PP and ES time.  Contrast this to the Ducks (for instance), with Vish leading the category, but if you look for #2, you see that Toni Lydman and Cam Fowler play about the same amount.  However, Fowler plays almost no PK, and three and a half minutes per game on the PP.  Lydman is the opposite, almost no PP time, but is way out in front of PK time. Certainly important when trying to evaluate a player.

I didn’t include GVT here because there isn’t a day-by-day calculation of GVT that I know of, and to be honest, GVT makes a lot of assumptions about the weights of various measures that I don’t necessarily agree with.  I won’t go so far as to say the attempt to create one stat that measures everything is a fool’s errand, but I feel like I get a better picture of a player when I look at several stats, and not just one.

Just a note for tonight- Jamie Benn and Alex Gologoski lead the Stars in Corsi Rel, so watch out for those guys.